Making reform of the tax system academic

2009 January 27
by Oliver Cooper

One of the third-year economics modules here at UCL is called ‘Economic Policy Analysis’: a hotch-potch of nonsense and various lecturers’ frivolous hobby-horses rammed together into what the university hopes is a coherent package.  It is, of course, nothing of the sort.  So far, we’ve examined five ‘policy areas’:

  • The economics of social welfare programmes (no justification as to why they should exist at all…).
  • The economics of abortion (who decides to have an abortion due to the local gender ratio?!).
  • The economics of immigration (something I can actually like!).
  • The economics of addiction to smoking (as if anyone doesn’t know the harms of smoking).

The first topic this term is ‘Reforming the tax system’.  “Yes”, I cry, “Finally, a lecturer that agrees that taxation is unjust!”  Sadly, it was not to be.

Instead, we heard a very simple model of optimal taxation: eat the rich.  The role of the tax system should be to exact the maximum amount of revenue from the rich, and give it to the poor.  The rich ‘exist simply to generate tax revenue’, according to the lecturer: a certain Richard Blundell CBE, head of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, former President of the European Economic Association and Econometric Society.  At the end of the lecture, the professor told us, “We hear a lot about taxation from politicians.  But this model is simple.  And everyone can agree with it.”  Not so sure about that.

Blundell is an econometrician: someone that uses mathematical and statistical tools to identify economic relationships.  The problem with econometricians is they usually prefer using said tools to common sense.  Maths works because it’s based on assumptions like 1 + 1 = 2.  Econometric models are often based on ridiculous assumptions.  Such as, for example, that the rich have no rights, but exist only to pay for the largesse of other people (who, by definition, therefore, do have rights: not just to their own property, but to other people’s!).

Is it any surprise that the country is going down the pan when even those that are most educated in economics - the people that are supposed to apply critical thinking to our economic woes, hold those prejudices with regards to their own subject?

1 Comment leave one →
2009 January 27

Oliver,
I think you’ll find I actually said that setting the welfare weight on the rich to zero will generate an upper bound on the top tax rate. This places a maximum on the tax rate for higher incomes - the Laffer point. This in turn will depend on the reponse elastcitity, which is where the econometrics comes in.
Knowing what the max for the top tax rate might be seems to me to be eminently useful. You may have noticed that this analysis has been used in the recent policy debate to suggest that the top tax rate should not be raised.
Yours, without prejudice,
Richard Blundell.
The Lecture notes (http://www.ucl.ac.uk/~uctp39a/Econ3007LectureI.pdf) read:

1. With no behavioural response, increasing the top rate will increase
government revenue. This is the mechanical effect on tax revenue,
and this is a benefit to society, as the revenue can be used for
government spending or higher transfers.
2. Increasing the top rate may also induce top bracket taxpayers to
reduce their earnings (but not below the top bracket, because nothing
has changed below this point) because of the substitution effect
described above. This is known as the behavioural response on tax
revenue, and it is a cost to society as tax revenues will fall.
3. Finally, any increase in the top rate will reduce the welfare of top
bracket taxpayers. This is the welfare effect, and it is a loss to
society. If the government values redistribution, then, for incomes
above a certain level, it will consider that the marginal value of
income is small. In the limit, the welfare effect will be negligible
relative to the mechanical effect on tax revenue.

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